Math at the frontlines of the covid war

Prerequisites: Умножение и деление, пропорции. Для последнего класса - some one variable calculus.

Ever since the arrival of covid-19, we have been showered with various numbers from all sides. People have been using them to justify their views on the pandemic response. As this conversation has become unduly politicized, some people have been misusing numbers to promote all kinds of questionable theories about covid and misleading others and themselves. Covid is as bad as a bad flu, or just a tiny bit worse. Masks and social distancing don't really work. Lockdowns aren't effective. Vaccines are dangerous and don't help much. We are already at herd immunity. And so on. The numbers they quote are usually correct, but they often give them out of context, to support their preconceived opinions. This class is about learning how to use guesstimation and other kinds of math to interpret covid-related numbers you see in the news and social networks, and use them to correctly assess risks and make rational decisions. The first two classes will use only very elementary math, and will be accessible to middle schoolers. The last class will be a bit more advanced and involve some high school math, such as calculus. Disclaimer: we will not be able to actually debunk any theories by covid deniers or antivaxers so that they would concede. Any math we do is necessarily based on some non-mathematical assumptions you have to believe, and they will question these assumptions rather than the math. There is nothing we can do about this as mathematicians; ultimately we have to develop our own views based on some beliefs and the math. In this class we will only worry about getting the math right.